11/20/2008 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Roethlisberger didn't let a bitter, snowy night bother his throwing or running, totaling 243 yards passing with a passing and rushing touchdown, as Pittsburgh methodically wore down Cincinnati, 27-10, at Heinz Field.
Roethlisberger completed 17-of-30 passes, with five of those passes going to Santonio Holmes, who was shaken up on a a helmet-to-helmet hit and did not return after amassing 84 receiving yards.
Willie Parker found little running room with 37 yards on 14 carries, but Mewelde Moore had more success with 56 yards on 15 carries to go along with four catches for 41 yards. Heath Miller caught four passes for 44 yards and a score for the Steelers (8-3), who won their fifth straight in the series for the first time since 1993.
Pittsburgh now leads the AFC North by 1 1/2 games over Baltimore, which plays Philadelphia on Sunday.
"It is what is," Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said about his team's position in the division and AFC playoff picture. "We are not over-evaluating at this point. We are living week to week. As long as we continue to live in a tunnel, we will be fine."
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 20-of-37 passes for 168 yards with one touchdown and one interception in defeat. Cedric Benson ran for 35 yards and Glenn Holt caught a touchdown pass for the Bengals (1-9-1), who played without star wideout Chad Johnson, who was suspended earlier in the day Thursday for violating team rules.
"We need to be able to run the football more effectively. We need to be able to convert. It's disappointing," stated Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis.
After a late game in the snow last Sunday, it took awhile for the Steelers to get into game action on a early winter night at half-full Heinz Field.
After two Pittsburgh punts and one on the Bengals side, Cincinnati marched down the field to take the lead. Third down conversions were the key, as the Bengals were successful on three third downs, including the 10-yard slant for a score from Fitzpatrick to the little-used kick returner Holt.
Each team punted before the Steelers offense finally gained traction in the light snow. Roethlisberger found his tight end Miller on a hot read for 14 yards and zipped a strike across the middle to Hines Ward, who weaved his way across the field for 37 yards to the Bengals 13-yard line. Later in the march, Roethlisberger's eight-yard pass to rookie Limas Sweed ended a yard short of the marker. Mike Tomlin rolled the dice, and Gary Russell's second effort picked up the first down. The gamble proved genius as Roethlisberger located Miller in the flat for a three-yard score and a tie game.
Pittsburgh then rode Jeff Reed's right leg to the lead. A 27-yard strike followed by a 22-yard dart to Holmes highlighted a march that ended with Reed's 37-yard field goal.
The Steelers defense stiffened late in the half after a Bengals punt hit off the hand of Sweed, giving Cincinnati the football inside the Pittsburgh 40-yard line. It didn't manage any points, however, before intermission.
Reed's second field goal of the game, a 38-yard boot that hugged the right upright, pushed the lead to 13-7 in the third quarter. Roethlisberger's 19- yard third-down conversion to Holmes was the big play on the possession.
The Steelers added a little more cushion to their edge late in the third stanza. The seven-play march included plenty of Moore, who ran for five and 15 yards before taking a screen pass 22 yards down the right sideline. Roethlisberger's 19-yard pass to Miller preceded Russell's two-yard touchdown walk into the end zone out wide to the right.
During the fourth quarter, Cincinnati put together an 11-play marathon that knocked on the doorstep of the Steelers end zone before stalling inside the 10-yard line. Fitzpatrick's 15-yard completion to Andre Caldwell kick started a drive that ended with Shayne Graham's 26-yard field goal.
Roethlisberger converted a big 3rd-and-10 on the next series, breaking out of a would-be sack deep in the backfield, slipping to the left and firing across his body to Sweed for 17 yards. Moore then handled the bulk of the work until Roethlisberger barreled his way into the end zone from eight yards out for a 27-10 edge with 2:22 to go.
Game Notes
Troy Polamalu's fifth interception of the season ended a late fourth- quarter Bengals drive into the Steelers red zone...LaMarr Woodley registered the lone Pittsburgh sack...Chris Kirkpatrick, of N'Sync fame and a Pennsylvania native, sang the national anthem...The Bengals converted just 4- of-15 third downs, while Pittsburgh was successful on 6-of-14 third-down tries...The Steelers outgained the Bengals, 364-208.
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Four share lead at Hong Kong Open >>
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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